But experts say even that calculation is still too simple.
“Those numbers are useful for thought experiments, but they don’t represent what’s likely to be the way we control the virus or its impacts,” said Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. “Offering a kind of magic number requires some very strong assumptions about these vaccines.”
Now many of those same experts say that figure is almost certainly too low.“If you really want true herd immunity, where you get a blanket of protection over the country ... you want about 75 to 85% of the country to get vaccinated,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease official, told reporters last week “I would say even closer to 85%”
“Those numbers are useful for thought experiments, but they don’t represent what’s likely to be the way we control the virus or its impacts,” said Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. “Offering a kind of magic number requires some very strong assumptions about these vaccines.”