Quinneapolis
Here's an english language vibes question
Quinneapolis
if I play a game a lot, and I win 51% of the time
Quinneapolis
do I 'usually' win
Quinneapolis
or do I need a higher win rate to use that word
dragon time
How many other players are in the game
Quinneapolis
one
TWO OF THEM
hmm. that's a good question
dragon time
Like if you play poker with 4 people and win half the time I'd call that usually winning
TWO OF THEM
i think i personally would say i "win more often than not," because that sounds better, but then i think about what the fundamental difference between that and usually is i'm like...is there one?
TWO OF THEM
and yet the vibes indicate to my brain that "more often than not" can account for 51% but "usually" probably can't
Frozen Time
usually to me means you reliably win, which would definitely require higher odds than a coin flip
Frozen Time
if the train is late 49% of the time, surely you wouldn't say it's usually on time?
Frozen Time
"usually" is "often enough to be the expected outcome" rather than just "more often than not"
TWO OF THEM
i think i agree
oh i'm scary
the thing I'm struggling with is imagining a situation in which I have to make this decision
oh i'm scary
if the ratio is 51% you didn't notice it organically, you have specific stats in front of you
Quinneapolis
a fighting game that remembers win rates
oh i'm scary
in which case you usually would just say 51%
oh i'm scary
that said
oh i'm scary
I do think usually probably means a higher rate
Quinneapolis
in which case you could say "yeah I usually kick quinn's ass"
oh i'm scary
I definitely wouldn't say that and not because I'm polite, as you well know
oh i'm scary
I'd describe that as Basically Even
Frozen Time
half the time < more often than not < often < usually < always
EsperBot
I would say that if you say that you ‘usually’ do something, it’s a statement that it’s the expected outcome
EsperBot
If you win 51% of the time, the odds of winning or losing are almost exactly equal. You can’t meaningfully say what the expected outcome is.
RobotApocalypse
yeah i wouldn't say "usually" there, "usually" is like, 70% minimum
BERSERKER
70-80% is the range of probability that terminal videogaming has left me referring to as "xcom baby" where unseen factors and confirmation bias make it feel more like a coinflip
BERSERKER
which brings "usually" to like, 85%-90%