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Walkinggeek
目前美國因武漢病毒已經死兩千多人, 目前預計總共會死10到20萬人. 聽起來很可怕, 但是
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掰噗~
太生氣囉
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Walkinggeek
那個數字取中位數放到CDC發布的那圖表約是每十萬人40出頭
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Walkinggeek
每年每十萬人死730個, 其中心臟血管165個, 意外傷害50, 長期呼吸系統40個, 倘尿病21, 流感肺炎14.5個
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Walkinggeek
武漢病毒容易致死的族群中很多是本來就在十大死因裡面的
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Walkinggeek
並不是說武漢病毒不可怕, 更不是說我們不該去防堵它傳播
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ohmylife不順眼就別看了
20玩的機率很低
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ohmylife不順眼就別看了
20萬意思是1300萬感染
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ohmylife不順眼就別看了
是當美國各地政府都是土著嗎?
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Walkinggeek
那是目前CDC預估的上限
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ohmylife不順眼就別看了
多估不是壞事,多估多要點資源,但實際上想想不太可能,因為人民是會怕死躲起來的
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ohmylife不順眼就別看了
但我希望小賈斯丁被感染XDDD
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Walkinggeek
並不是不可能, 如果要曲線平了後趕開工那搞不好是可以容許的範圍, 只要不拖垮醫療體系
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ohmylife不順眼就別看了
看看吧
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Walkinggeek
我如果要用自己的錢賭我會開8萬
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Walkinggeek
到今年底為止
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滴滴麵
我覺得傳染病跟文明病最大的差別,在於個人的主控性很低。(沒藥醫的)瘟疫比較像意外死亡,對人的心理衝擊很大。
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Walkinggeek
滴滴麵
: 是啊, 因不可控性導致的心理衝擊是主因吧
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afsj
如果時間長達三年三波,10-20萬我是覺得有可能。
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Walkinggeek
20萬只是平時4年的流感/肺炎死亡數, 也就是說如果今年死20萬也是平常流感的4倍人數了. 當然啦, 20萬是如果我們實行 social distancing 的結果. 如果防疫措施完全不做死亡人數可能達兩百萬, 也就是40年的流感死亡人數
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Honest_Wind
American Experience | Influenza 1918 | Season 10 | E...
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Honest_Wind
I watched it last night. Eventually the virus ran out of hosts in November 1918, and all survivors had immunity ...
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Honest_Wind
"Influenza 1918 is the story of the worst epidemic the United States has ever known. Before it was over, the flu would kill more than 600,000 Americans - more than all the combat deaths of this century combined."
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Honest_Wind
"all the combat deaths of this century combined" referred to WW-I in the 20th Century ...