Foxx
@lester850
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 5:54 AM
31
7
Philip McDonough 🇺🇸🇫🇴 (@pmcdonough22) on X
🇺🇸Mr. G 🇺🇸 (@HansGutenburg) on X
https://images.plurk.com/2B6LuQfnDyYSwVw2pRvOnS.png

左: AtlasIntel在10月底做的封關民調
右: 正式選舉結果

命中率: 100%
fhrop450215
@fhrop450215
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 6:08 AM
我怎麼記得有選區分區更小的圖，紅色會更多，藍色或更少，顯然藍色在一州都只有贏城市而喔
ncyc
@ncyc
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 6:15 AM
AtlasIntel執行長還在推特公開538操縱模式的證據，戳到538總編把他封鎖
モシ豚🍲
@mosipig
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 6:39 AM
fhrop450215 : 是指這種圖嗎？州面積上色圖比較容易誤會，因為中部滿多面積大但人口少、選舉人票少的州，人口大多集中在東西岸。
https://images.plurk.com/2Lcsx6OOKKn9D0DoNRirx8.png
ressdon
@ressdon
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 6:41 AM
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on X
也許是指這個？
fhrop450215
@fhrop450215
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 7:12 AM
モシ豚🍲 : ressdon : 是伊隆這張才對，看到其實蠻訝異的，只有藍州內的重點都市有贏的樣子
モシ豚🍲
@mosipig
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 7:14 AM
喔喔原來。不過這種圖會被州面積和人口密度而誤會，看起來好像是完全碾壓，但事實上的選舉人票數大概是三二開 ↑只是想表達這點
fhrop450215
@fhrop450215
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 7:29 AM
モシ豚🍲 : 其實就跟台灣的開票所一樣，之前台北市中山松山補選立委也是一樣，中山區雖然小贏國民黨，但松山區幾個眷村區就把領先吐回去了
Pink Champagne
@VelvetLifeNYCGlamorousLuxury
Fri, Nov 8, 2024 2:57 PM
AtlasIntel and Nate Silver had Trump winning narrowly on the morning of Election Day. They both reversed for Harris by noon.

But RealClearPolitics had Trump winning every swing state as their final Election Day forecast. One of the handful of pollers to get it right.
Foxx
@lester850
Sat, Nov 9, 2024 4:28 PM
Pink Champagne : You are wrong. AtlasIntel predicted Trump getting 312 by the end of Oct. They HAVE NOT released anything on election day
Pink Champagne
@VelvetLifeNYCGlamorousLuxury
Sun, Nov 10, 2024 2:53 AM
They released it Election Day morning. Don't make me have to waste my time refinding it!
Pink Champagne
@VelvetLifeNYCGlamorousLuxury
Sun, Nov 10, 2024 3:08 AM
Foxx : 4 DAYS after the election you waste my time with this? For what purpose? Nitpicking on a date not even mentioned.
Pink Champagne
@VelvetLifeNYCGlamorousLuxury
Sun, Nov 10, 2024 3:28 AM
Foxx : October poll you mention was outdated.

Go to fivethirtyeight
r/fivethirtyeight

Fivey

4 days ago
Hot-Area7752
Join

Atlas Intel absolutely nailed it
Polling Industry/Methodology
Their last polls of the swing states:

Trump +1 in Wisconsin (Trump currently up .9) Trump +1 in Penn (Trump currently up 1.7)
Pink Champagne
@VelvetLifeNYCGlamorousLuxury
Sun, Nov 10, 2024 3:29 AM
Foxx : Trump +1 in Penn (Trump currently up 1.7)

Trump +2 in NC (Trump currently up 2.4)

Trump +3 in Nevada (Trump currently up 4.7)

Trump +5 in Arizona (Trump currently up 4.7)

Trump + 11 in Texas (Trump currently up 13.9)

Harris +5 in Virigina (Harris currently up 5.2)

Trump +1 in Popular vote
Pink Champagne
@VelvetLifeNYCGlamorousLuxury
Sun, Nov 10, 2024 3:30 AM
There are other downloads of AtlasIntel state by state polls right up until Election Day.

Thanks for wasting my time for NO REASON 🤯
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